The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is a powerful bloc of Eurasian countries that has a huge impact on global affairs. Yet, some people in Pakistan criticized the decision of Bilawal Bhutto, the foreign minister, to attend its meeting in Goa, India. They failed to see the importance, role, and significance of this organization for Pakistan’s interests and security. Let me explain why Bilawal’s participation was not only necessary but also strategic.
The SCO is the world’s largest regional and leading organization in terms of geographic area scope and population. It covers approximately 60% of Eurasia, 40% of the world population and more than 30% of the global GDP. It was founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as a successor to the Shanghai Five group. It has since expanded to eight member states, with Pakistan and India joining in 2017. It also has four observer states: Afghanistan, Belarus, Iran and Mongolia, and six dialogue partners: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Turkey. Saudi Arabia is an aspirant and has applied to join the organization and is in process of fulfilling official formalities.
The SCO aims to maintain peace, security and stability in the region and to cooperate on issues such as counter-terrorism, trade, energy and culture. These are vital areas for Pakistan’s development and security. Therefore, Bilawal’s presence in the SCO meeting was crucial to represent Pakistan’s views and interests on these matters.
One of the issues that had been taken up informally by the SCO foreign ministers was the Ukraine situation. Although it was not listed on the official agenda, it is a matter of common interest for regional and global security. Russia and China, who are key players in the situation, had informally shared their insights with their peers. Bilawal’s absence from this forum would have been a sheer short-sightedness. Pakistan needs to be aware of the developments and implications of the Ukraine crisis for its own security and relations with other countries.
Another reason why Pakistan should make the most of its presence in the SCO is the emerging regional alignments after the Ukraine crisis and their impact on Pakistan’s energy security. Let us take a pause to recap some of the developments in the region that preceded the Goa conference and have given it special importance.
On 10th March 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to a diplomatic détente after closed-door negotiations facilitated by Beijing. This was a major breakthrough for regional peace, stability, and energy security. Five days later, Saudi Arabia announced its investment plans in Iran. The same day, authorized state bodies of SCO member countries agreed on the importance of emerging fuels, such as hydrogen, biofuels and ammonia, among others in the transition to clean energy sources. Two weeks after normalizing ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia officially applied for joining the SCO as a dialogue partner. An MoU is signed in this regard and auxiliary due process is underway. Iran applied for full membership in 2022. Another week passed, and OPEC plus led by Russia and Saudi Arabia (the world’s second and third largest oil producers, respectively) announced their surprise oil cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), in addition to the existing 2 million bpd cut that was agreed in October 2022. The new cut will start from May and last until the end of the year.
The impact of this cut on global oil prices and supply is likely to be significant. Oil prices soared by 7 percent after the announcement, reaching above $85 per barrel. Some analysts have forecasted that oil prices could jump by $10 per barrel or even reach $100 per barrel in the coming months. The cut will also reduce the global oil supply by around 3.7 percent of the world’s demand creating a tighter market and a potential supply crunch if demand recovers faster than expected.
Another development that has implications for regional peace and stability is the Saudi peace proposals. The very point, I am trying to make here is that some exciting realignments are taking place in our region, which affects the long-term prospects of peace and energy supply globally. Interestingly, SCO members and dialogue partners are playing a central role in most of these realignments. They are showing leadership and initiative in resolving conflicts and promoting cooperation.
The SCO itself is also expanding its membership and outreach. In Goa, the foreign ministers have signed MOUs with five new dialogue partners: Bahrain, Kuwait, Maldives, Myanmar and UAE. These countries had applied to join the SCO as they saw the benefits of being part of this influential bloc. Likewise, the foreign ministers also recommend to the SCO Council of Heads of State that Iran may be given full member status in the council meeting due in July this year. The case of Belarus for the full membership would be approved in the near future. These countries have been observers for a long time and have shown their commitment to the SCO’s principles and objectives.
These developments have important implications for Pakistan’s energy security. Pakistan is an oil-importing country that relies heavily on fossil fuels for its energy needs. Higher oil prices will increase its import bill and inflation rate. Lower oil supply will create shortages and disruptions in its domestic market. Therefore, Pakistan needs to diversify its energy sources and explore alternative options such as renewable energy or emerging fuels.
As rightly pointed out by Bilawal Bhutto in his speech at Goa, “Pakistan is located at the crossroads of South Asia and the Middle East making it an ideal trade conduit for the whole region.” Likewise, Pakistan’s location can benefit greatly from the SCO’s platform for energy cooperation. Among other objectives, this platform aims to ensure energy security, efficiency, and sustainability among its members. Pakistan already enjoys some advantages from its SCO partners in terms of energy access and resources. For example, it gets oil on deferred payments from Saudi Arabia and UAE, electricity for its Gwadar region from Iran, and soon it will receive crude oil from Russia.
Besides energy, Pakistan needs continued financial support and deposit rollovers from China, Saudi Arabia, and UAE to cope with economic turmoil. All three are part of the SCO.
Bilawal Bhutto’s participation in the SCO meeting in Goa was a smart move that showed Pakistan’s commitment to regional cooperation and connectivity but also provided it a chance to put its point of view on the table.
Addressing the conference, Bilawal very eloquently highlighted the need for collective action to tackle climate change, poverty reduction, and combating terrorism. He demanded tangible support for the “loss and damage fund” that was created during COP27 last November on the demand of G77 plus countries under the presidency of Pakistan.
On terrorism, he demanded to stop conflating non-state actors with state actors and advised against weaponizing terrorism for diplomatic point scoring.
Those who were criticizing him for compromising the Kashmir cause should listen to his carefully crafted speech in which, without violating the norms of the plurilateral forum, he put on record that unilateral and entirely illegal measures by “States” in violation of international law and Security Council resolution run counter to the SCO objective. In an implicit reference to the Hindutva in India, he condemned wilful provocations and incitement to hate, especially on religious grounds. He also called upon all SCO partners to combat against fascism and historical revisionism that is ultimately leading to violent ultranationalism anywhere in the world.
Outside the plurilateral settings, in his side-line press engagements, which were shown live on leading media channels in India and Pakistan, he reiterated Pakistan’s stance on the Kashmir issue without mincing any words. Something which ultimately would not have been possible had the Pakistani foreign minister not attended this moot.
To sum up, endorsing what Bilawal said, “The SCO represents the future. And it can be a glorious and prosperous future for all of us –if only we can work together to seize it”.
