NEW YORK: The population of almost every nation will be declining by the end of the century, a major study stated. The study, conducted by an international team of hundreds of researchers and published in The Lancet, warns of significant social change driven by baby booms in developing nations and population declines in richer ones.
According to the research conducted by the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the fertility rate in half of all nations is already below the replacement level needed to sustain population size. By 2050, the population of three quarters of all countries is expected to shrink, with that number projected to increase to 97 percent – or 198 out of 204 countries and territories – by the end of the century.
Only a handful of countries, including Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan, are expected to have fertility rates exceeding the replacement level of 2.1 births per female in 2100, the study estimated.
IHME researchers emphasized the significant social ramifications of these projections, with senior study author Stein Emil Vollset stating that the world will be facing “staggering social change” through the 21st century.
The implications of these trends, according to IHME researcher Natalia Bhattacharjee, are immense, with potential impacts on the global economy, international balance of power, and societal organization. She noted that open immigration may become necessary to sustain economic growth once nearly every country’s population is in decline.
However, experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) urged caution regarding the study’s projections, highlighting limitations in the models and the need for nuanced communication about the figures. While acknowledging potential benefits of a smaller population, such as for the environment and food security, they also underscored disadvantages related to labor supply, social security, and geopolitics.
Teresa Castro Martin, a researcher at the Spanish National Research Council not involved in the study, emphasized that these are projections and pointed out discrepancies with other forecasts, such as those from the United Nations.
