WASHINGTON: US President Joe Biden begins his campaign for a second term with a substantial advantage over his declared opponents for the Democratic nomination, according to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
However, the poll reveals headwinds for Biden among the overall public, including declining favorability and a prevailing perception that his reelection would have a negative impact on the country.
The survey indicates that only one-third of Americans believe Biden’s victory in 2024 would be a step forward or a triumph for the country, with 33% expressing such views. Furthermore, Biden’s favorable ratings have experienced a decline over the past six months, dropping from 42% in December to 35% currently. Earlier this week, a separate poll released by CNN showed Biden’s approval rating for handling the presidency at 40%, among the lowest for any first-term president since Dwight Eisenhower.
Within the Democratic Party, 60% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters express their support for Biden as the party’s candidate in the upcoming election. Activist and lawyer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. garners 20% support, while author Marianne Williamson receives 8% backing. An additional 8% of respondents say they would support an unnamed candidate.
Joe Biden’s Primary Supporters Exhibit Strong Loyalty
Biden’s primary supporters exhibit strong loyalty, with 58% stating they would definitely support him, while 42% mention they could change their minds. In contrast, those supporting other candidates show less commitment, with only 19% saying they would definitely support their preferred candidate, and 81% indicating they could change their minds.
The poll suggests that Biden is likely to receive the majority of Democratic-aligned voters’ support in the 2024 election. Only 14% of this group state they would not back him in the primary, and a mere 7% firmly declare they would not support him in the general election if he secures the party’s nomination.
However, Biden could face challenges in retaining the support of Democratic-aligned White non-college voters in the general election. Sixteen percent of these voters express that they would definitely not support Biden in November 2024, compared to 1% of White Democratic-aligned voters with college degrees and 5% of Democratic-aligned voters of color.
Biden’s vulnerabilities in the race for the nomination are primarily concentrated among independent voters who lean Democratic, with only 40% backing him for the nomination, compared to 67% of self-identified Democrats. Additionally, younger voters show less support for Biden, as 49% of those under 45 years old express their backing, compared to 68% among those aged 45 or older.
While a majority of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters state they would at least consider supporting Kennedy (64%) or Williamson (53%), few respondents express strong ties to either candidate. For those considering Kennedy, 20% cite his familial connections to the Kennedy family as the main reason. For those considering Williamson, nearly 30% admit they lack sufficient knowledge about her.
The poll indicates that Biden may face challenges in convincing the overall public that he deserves a second term. Two-thirds (66%) of all Americans view a Biden victory as either a setback or a disaster for the country. Former President Donald Trump, the leading contender for the Republican nomination, fares slightly better, with 43% considering a Trump win as a triumph or a step forward, while 56% view it as a disaster or a setback.
Notably, Biden’s own party members express a more pessimistic assessment compared to Trump. Over 80% of Democrats view a Trump win as a disaster, while a similar share of Republicans perceive a Biden win as such. However, Republicans are more likely to consider a Trump win as a triumph.
