NEW DELHI: In India’s general election, a lower voter turnout thus far has rattled Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign strategists, casting doubt on the landslide victory expected by polls just a month ago.
The lack of momentum is attributed in part to complacency among party workers who perceive victory as assured. This shift has prompted Modi to alter his campaign rhetoric, aiming to energize the Hindu majority, the core support base of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and mobilize them to polling stations, suggest political analysts.
Previously, opinion polls suggested that the BJP and its allies could secure three-quarters of the 543 seats in Parliament, buoyed by Modi’s popularity, robust economic growth, welfare initiatives, and the inauguration of a Hindu temple at a contested site in the predominantly Hindu nation.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP clinched 303 seats, with its allies securing approximately 50 seats. The party’s slogan for the 2024 election, “Ab ki baar, 400 paar” (This time, above 400), aimed for a stronger mandate.
However, several BJP leaders and analysts have informed Reuters that the lack of momentum in the initial phases of the seven-phase election has tempered expectations of a significant majority for the party. Nonetheless, they anticipate the BJP retaining power in the world’s most populous democracy.
The BJP’s aspiration to secure a two-thirds majority in the 362 members house, which would enable the party to enact substantial constitutional amendments, could be affected by the current scenario.
Sanjay Sharma, a member of the BJP’s campaign committee in the northern state of Haryana, attributed the decline in voter turnout to apathy among party workers and voters. He acknowledged a “tough fight” in Haryana, where the party swept all 10 parliamentary seats in 2019, partly due to anti-incumbency sentiments.
Prime Minister Modi has pivoted in his campaign speeches from touting the administration’s accomplishments during his tenure to targeting minority Muslims and the opposition Congress party.
“After the first phase, we saw a definite change of strategy by the PM… delivering Islamophobic kinds of speeches,” remarked Arati Jerath, a political commentator based in Delhi. “Obviously, he has now decided to polarize the campaign.”
A total of 190 seats were contested on April 19 and 27, with a voter turnout of approximately 66 percent, according to the Election Commission. While this figure was only slightly lower than the 2019 election, there was a noticeable decline in voting in BJP-ruled states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan. The BJP had anticipated a high turnout as a signal of strong support from its base.
Polling concludes on June 1, and votes will be tallied on June 4. The government has prohibited the publication of exit polls until all voting is completed.
