According to the Global Information and Early Warning System of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Pakistan is among the 20 countries forecast to have excessive rainfall in the coming years.
The news does not augur well, given the devastation Pakistan incurred from last year’s Monsoon. The state has not fully recovered from the menace. The water has not receded in many areas, while the means to build back have been few and far between. Had it not been for the rehabilitation efforts of the philanthropic institutions, the situation would have been worse.
The impact of 2022 floods on human life
The data collected by the Nations Disaster Management Authority shows that 33 million, or one in seven people, have been affected by the deadly floods of 2022 in Pakistan. The report published by the International Medical Corps in February 2023 estimates that 5 million people living close to the flooded areas are in danger of displacement and attracting contagious diseases due to contaminated floodwaters and lack of shelters, tents, latrines and food items such as safe drinking water.
As a result, the condition of malnutrition is expected to get worse. The latest research of the National Nutrition Survey reveals that almost 1.6 million children in Balochistan and Sindh are at risk of malnutrition. If the situation is not appropriately addressed, the stunting rate will further increase.
Impact of 2020 floods on economy
As per the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), Pakistan has suffered $30 billion in damages and economic losses. The report further warns that unless some fundamental shifts in development and policies are adopted, Pakistan will continue suffering from the adverse effects of climate-induced changes.
From the economic perspective, Pakistan’s environmental degradation because of climate change can reduce the country’s GDP by at least 18 to 20 per cent by 2050.
What is climate change?
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) describes Climate Change as “a change of weather (climate) which is linked directly or indirectly to human activity that changes the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate (changing factors) variability observed over comparable time periods.”
The Earth’s climate systems comprise land surface, atmosphere, oceans, and ice. The rising atmospheric temperature due to increased concentration of Carbon Dioxide has increased temperatures in all of these systems leading to melting of glaciers, Arctic sea ice, Greenland and Antarctic land ice. Moreover, warmer atmosphere has increased humidity and sea level.
Risk associated with climate change
The entire globe is in danger of being affected by climate changes.
The World Health Organisation forecast in 2014 that 250,000 people would die annually from 2030 to 2050 due to climate changes manifested in extreme heat, coastal flooding, diarrhoea, malaria, dengue and under nutrition.
Limiting global warming to 2°C
The only way these damages can be controlled is by limiting the release of CO2. In 1996 the European Commission first adopted the goal of limiting global warming (heat) to 2 degrees Celsius. In 2009 the UNFCCC, at its Copenhagen meeting, reaffirmed the commitment to (reduce and) limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
A similar reaffirmation was made in 2015 at the G7 and UNFCCC meetings in Paris. Today limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius has become an international policy goal.
Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan
As per the Global Climate Risk Index (2021), Pakistan is considered the eighth most vulnerable country to long-term climate risk. Pakistan is in the grip of heat waves and flash floods due to the accelerated melting of glaciers in the northern areas. The country has more than 7,000 glaciers, many of which are in the Himalayan region. A study led by the University of Leeds UK, published in December 2021, reported the loss of Himalayan glaciers ten times higher than the average rate over past centuries.
The Himalayas in Nepal and India have already lost 40 per cent of their ice over several hundred years. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification ranked Pakistan among the top 23 countries vulnerable to drought-related emergencies. Drought, a direct result of low precipitation, affects “crop yield volatility.” The result is low yields and a substantial financial loss.
Way forward for Pakistan
Countries like Pakistan, dependent on foreign assistance to meet domestic expenditures, cannot beat the odds presented by climate-induced changes without the private investment in sectors most vulnerable to climate risks, such as water management, agriculture, urban infrastructure, multiple services and housing.
Pakistan needs to develop a sustainable and resilient climate change policy within the following framework:
1.Transformation of agri-food system: Over half of Pakistan’s population is employed in agriculture. For many years, heat waves, untimely rains and floods have destroyed all types of harvests and crops. Combine this with the overuse of chemical inputs, lack of water and research and degradation of land, the projected drop in agriculture output by 2050 comes to 50%. In short, Pakistan is faced with looming food and water insecurity. There is a dire need for Pakistan to revisit its environmentally harmful subsidies and promote climate-smart and regenerative agriculture and livestock systems.
2. Building resilient and liveable cities: An urban lifestyle is defined by modern living dependent on technology operated mainly by fossil fuel. However, in countries like Pakistan, where arrangement for cleanliness is sparse, pollution makes climate-induced changes further dangerous. According to the CCDR, pollution in Pakistan is expected to increase from 37 per cent in 2020 to 60 per cent in 2050. To make city life liveable and mitigate climate change’s effects, Pakistan will have to increase investment in municipal services and energy efficient and clean transportation.
3. Transitioning to sustainable energy and low carbon transport: The transport and energy sectors are two of the major contributor to Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Pakistan fulfils 90 per cent of its energy needs from fossil fuels, but most of the energy produced through these resources is lost due to technical and distribution failures. The fundamental prerequisite to combating climate change is increasing investment in mass transit and shifting to efficient energy production methods.
4. Strengthening human capital for sustained and equitable development and climate resilience: A healthy and productive human capital is essential to acquire sustainable and resilient lifestyle. Pakistan would have to spend substantially on improving water management, sanitation and hygiene. Child stunting and high infertility are the direct consequences of contaminated water, unclean environment and unhealthy food. It is time for the government to fulfil its commitment to providing universal access to quality education to the children of Pakistan—education is an important tool in managing climate change.
5. Aligning financing policies, incentives and institutions with climate actions: A synergy between climate actions and other government policies is highly important. According to CCDR, Pakistan requires a total investment of around 10% of the cumulative GDP until 2030 to implement its climate actions successfully. Every policy, institution and law will have to collaborate to procure the investment and implement climate action plans.
Though Pakistan is not a significant contributor to global warming, its high usage of fossil fuel and its economic mismanagement because of political instability has made it highly vulnerable to the risks of climate change. Is Pakistan prepared to meet the monsoon spell due in mid-summer —is a wild guess as of now?
The writer is a public policy analyst based in Lahore. She tweets @durdananajam
