President Erdogan’s Triumph & Prospects for Pakistan-Turkiye Relations

Mon Jun 05 2023
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Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal

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RECEP Tayyip Erdogan’s third-time triumph in the presidential election on May 28, 2023, has reconfirmed the trust of the Turkish people in his politico-economic vision and policies. While rejoicing in his victory, he said: “I thank our nation, which gave us the responsibility of governing again for the next five years.” Indeed, the recent presidential and parliamentary elections were free and fair in Turkiye.

During the first round of the Turkiye presidential elections concluded on May 14, Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured 49.5 percent, and Kemal Kilicdaroglu secured 44.9 percent. In the parliamentary elections, the Erdogan-led Justice and Development Party (AKP) party won 267 seats, and the Kilicdaroglu-led opposition party, Republican People’s Party (CHP), won 169 seats out of 600 in the parliament. According to the Turkiye Constitution, the presidential candidate must secure more than 50 percent, and Erdogan was short of .5 percent. Therefore, the Supreme election council announced on May 16 that the top two contenders would go for a second round of the election. On May 28, during the second round of elections, Erdogan secured 52.16 percent, and Kilicdaroglu obtained 47.84 percent. Consequently, Erdogan was sworn in for a new term as Turkish president on June 03, 2023.

President Erdogan’s victory beckons the continuity of foreign and strategic policy of Turkiye. On June 3, he promised, “I, as president, swear upon my honor and integrity before the great Turkish nation and history to safeguard the existence and independence of the state.” The critical review of his previous regime’s policies reveals that without exiting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Ankara will deepen its relations with China, Russia, and Muslim states, including Pakistan. Moreover, Turkiye pursues a balanced approach in its neighborhood and in its relations with Arabian Gulf States. Consequently, Turkiye’s role as a regional and international player will grow.

Pakistan and Turkiye’s cordial relations are deeply rooted in commonalities of faith, culture, and history. Indeed, the reelection of President Erdogan provides an opportunity for Ankara and Islamabad to broaden the scope of the strategic partnership between them. On June 3, Prime Minister Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif’s presence at the inauguration ceremony of President Erdogan accentuated the deep-rooted fraternal ties between Pakistan and Turkiye.

Pakistan has been struggling to distance itself from the bloc politics, despite its arch-rival—India has systematically been transiting from a non-allied state to an ally of the United States in the emerging global geopolitics. It is a member of QUAD, I2U2 and currently endeavoring for membership in the NATO-plus security bloc. In such a challenging strategic environment, Islamabad must act intelligently and improve its bilateral relations with like-minded nations such as Turkiye. The Turkish leadership and people have been supporting Pakistan’s official position on Kashmir, which says that a free and fair plebiscite in Kashmir, according to the UN Security Council resolutions on Kashmir.

Ankara and Islamabad have convergence over regional and global issues. Therefore, they have maintained identical stances and close cooperation in multilateral forums, named the United Nations, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), and Developing Eight (D-8).

Even with cordial relations, the trade volume between Pakistan and Turkiye could be more impressive. Their trade has hovered around $160 million during the last five years. Admittedly, parallel economies in two countries hinder increasing trade volume. However, many other options exist to increase economic cooperation through collaboration in agricultural and dairy innovation, chicken farming, and establishing joint cargo lines/regular charter vessel services.

Although Prime Minister Shahbaz visited Ankara to attend Erdogan’s oath-taking ceremony, he interacted with the leading Turkish investors and the business community to boost economic cooperation between Pakistan and Turkiye. He persuaded chief executives of Turkish business groups to take advantage of the fraternal ties between Turkiye and Pakistan’s vision to facilitate Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and joint ventures in energy, solar, construction, infrastructure, transportation, and solid waste management. Notably, both countries signed Trade Goods Agreement (TGA) in August 2022, which became operational on May 1, 2023. The TGA aimed to exploit new opportunities to trade traditional and non-traditional products between the two countries.

Prime Minister Shahbaz also met with leading Turkish companies executives already invested in Pakistan, named Anadolu Group, Arcelik, Zorlu, Albayrak, Limak, Dolsar, Turkish Contractors Association, and Pak Yetirim. Another important meeting of Premier Shahbaz was with Ms. Ebru Ozdmeir, chair of the Board, Limak Holding. They contemplated opportunities in the construction infrastructure and energy sector. It was reported that Ms. Ozdemir agreed to visit Pakistan soon along with a delegation to expand trade and investment between the two countries. Moreover, she expressed interest in launching Global Engineer Girls (GEG) initiative in Pakistan. The GEG is an international philanthropic initiative to inspire the next generation of female engineers and provide girls and women with education, mentorship, and career opportunities in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.

To conclude, President Erdogan’s third tenure will be promising for the Turkish people and the bilateral relationship between Pakistan and Turkiye.

Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal

Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected] Twitter: @zafar_jaspal

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