Bullish trend in Pakistan stock exchange appeared as pleasant breather for deteriorated economy. The caretaker government deserves due appreciation for effectively undertaking the complicated issue of instability. Actions of caretakers are visibly speaking louder than the words. Unlike elected governments, mandate of the caretaker cabinet is very limited. Obviously, free and fair conduct of elections is at the top priority list. It will not be an over exaggeration that from the outset, present caretaker setup had to confront with the most complicated poly-crisis of the history of Pakistan. Facts mentioned in succeeding lines are enough of evidence to comprehend the exact nature of crisis in various domains-:
Constitutional Domain: For the first time in the electoral history of Pakistan, caretaker setup in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had to operate while the regular elected governments were reigning in the Centre, Sindh and Baluchistan. Constitution offers no clear solution to conduct separate elections for Centre and provinces. PTI could not digest constitutional ouster of its government in the Centre, subsequently, saying goodbye to national assembly after vote of no confidence proved disastrous for PTI. Later on, dissolution of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab assemblies multiplied the ill effects for the party and triggered a constitutional crisis as well. Elections for provincial assemblies could not be possible in the presence of regular government in Centre. Though, matter was taken up with the court by political stakeholders but it eventually led to extended caretaker set up in both provinces.
Economic Domain: When caretakers took charge in August this year, situation on economic front was quite precarious. Default prophecies of PTI stalwarts badly damaged the confidence of investors. Violation of IMF deal in PTI era, frequent devaluation of Rupee and inflation surge heavily jolted the economic foundations of Pakistan.
Internal Security Domain: Pakistan constantly remained entangled with multiple security challenges which took a trigger from follies of past governments, takeover of Taliban in Kabul and geo-political alignments at regional chess-board. Significant challenges descripted below reflect the precarious security matrix: –
One; rise in cross border terrorist attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa especially the areas adjacent to western border posed renewed threats.
Two; active presence of banned TTP in Afghanistan and rising involvement of Afghan citizens in terrorist attacks added a complicated twist in internal security affairs and bilateral ties with the neighbor being governed by an interim regime lacking international recognition.
Three; terrorist attacks in Baluchistan have obvious footprints of India sponsored anarchists and Afghanistan based extremists who are exploiting ethnic and misinterpreted religious narratives respectively. Logically, broader aims of the terrorists finally converge at the sabotage of CPEC projects and destabilization of Pakistan.
Four; exploitation of ethnic fault lines is not restricted to Baluchistan province only. Pashtun anarchists are continuously fueling the public sentiments and creating hype over cross border attacks from Afghanistan.
Instability, Demoralization & Chaos: Immature political adventurism and persistent hammering of bleak rhetorical narratives created the environment of despair all across the country. Besides multiple tough challenges, caretakers had to deal with the much tougher issue of perpetuating fear of failure which was actually the accumulative effect of baseless politicized propaganda and governance failures of elected governments.
Achievements and Expectations
Revival of Stability: Positive Signs: Undoubtedly, putting Pakistan back on the track of stability is an uphill task. PTI and its successor PDM, both, could not fulfill their promises despite having full scale mandate and authority during respective tenures broken during term of five years. Surprisingly, caretakers have performed much better as compared to the elected ones on account of stabilizing the country. Facts mentioned briefly in succeeding lines significantly endorse the positive contribution of existing caretaker setup: –
First, strict measures implemented for curtailing the currency devaluation proved successful. Rupee significantly regained lost value. Authentic international observers like Bloomberg graded Rupee as the best performing currency amid remarkable recovery in short span of time.
Two, better cooperation was created among the government, Armed Forces & civil LEAs. Well synchronized crack down on dollar hoarders, smugglers and money launderers led by Armed Forces played vital role in curtailing the market chaos.
Three, zero tolerance policy against terrorists of all brands has been reinforced to maintain the momentum of counter terrorism successes. Deportation of illegal immigrants and firm message to IAG on the issue of banned TTP reflects appreciable resolve of caretaker setup.
Four, gradual revival of financial stability too significant to deny. Successful conclusion of the staff level deal with IMF has started paying the dividends. As on 28th November, the KSE-100 index has crossed the historic benchmark of 60 thousand.
Five, senior leadership of Armed Forces is visibly playing the traditional stabilizing role through effective military diplomacy and tremendous counter terrorism operations. UAE tour of the caretaker PM along with COAS and inking of multi-billion Dollar MoUs are positive indicators about economic revival and financial stability.
Post-Election Scenarios: Expectations from Political Parties
First, parties should deliberate upon finalization of respective manifesto and build election campaign on public issues instead of rhetoric. Second, economic revival merits top priority, larger consensus and depoliticized reforms.
Three, accountability and corruption are serious matters. Rhetorical approach of previous regimes has damaged the socio-political dynamics. Nation expects sanitized political representatives in the next parliament.
Four, culture of verbosity, demagoguery and character assassination must be shunned for the collective benefit of society.
Five, there has to be consensus-based policies on matters of national security and diplomacy. Lackluster approach on the issues of terrorism, illegal immigrants, border security, law enforcement and ties with regional as well as global players subsequently proves harmful to the State. Six, above all acceptance of election results and refraining from election rigging mantra is of utmost importance to maintain the political stability.
(Writer is freelance columnist and can be reached at [email protected])
