DUBAI: In the aftermath of the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan two years ago, the United States has initiated a process of relaxing regulations that could potentially permit commercial airlines to cross the country’s airspace along shorter East-West routes.
These new flight paths could significantly reduce travel times and fuel consumption for flights between India, Southeast Asia, Europe, and America. However, the prospect of resuming overflights raises several unanswered questions, particularly given the Taliban’s history of gender-based restrictions and the presence of anti-aircraft weaponry.
During the Taliban’s rule in the 1990s and the months following the September 11, 2001, attacks, pressing issues regarding women’s rights and human rights in general remained unresolved. The group’s policies of excluding women from education and the workforce, coupled with behaviours deemed by United Nations experts as resembling “gender apartheid,” cast doubt on how to engage with them as a reliable authority. The quandary is further compounded by the lingering threat of shoulder-launched anti-aircraft weapons in the region, which pose a risk to aircraft flying through uncontrolled Afghan airspace.
Aviation industry experts have voiced scepticism about the feasibility of flights over Afghanistan. Organizations like the OPSGroup have expressed concerns about the lack of air traffic control (ATC) services across the country, the potential for missile launches, and the challenges of dealing with the Taliban in the event of an emergency landing. The risks associated with these factors have deterred airlines from taking the chance of flying over Afghanistan.
Despite the challenges, the potential impact of resuming overflights is substantial for carriers. Afghanistan’s geographical location in central Asia positions it along the most direct routes between India, Europe, and America. Since the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in 2021, civil aviation in the region came to a halt, with global authorities instructing commercial airliners to avoid Afghan airspace due to concerns about anti-aircraft fire. As a result, flight paths have been diverted, adding time and fuel costs to flights.
However, the US Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) recent decision to allow flights above 32,000 feet to potentially resume due to diminished risks has garnered attention. This move could lead to a more direct route for certain flights, offering relief from the financial burden of longer diversions. The FAA’s decision-making process is linked to the State Department, which has been engaged in multiple meetings with Taliban officials since the US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan.
For the time being, only Afghan and Iranian carriers appear to be operating over Afghan airspace. The potential risks associated with militant attacks using aircraft-targeting missiles are a deterrent for most international airlines. Despite the belief that altitudes above 32,000 feet are beyond the reach of such weapons, airlines remain cautious.
Airlines that currently traverse the region, such as United Airlines and Virgin Atlantic, have expressed cautiousness in expanding their usage of Afghan airspace. These airlines operate flights through the Wakhan Corridor and have assessed the situation based on dynamic factors and guidance from relevant authorities. Similarly, American Airlines and Air India, which also use the Wakhan Corridor route, have yet to offer comments on the prospect of overflights.
In the past, airlines heavily utilized the corridor, with overflights increasing from near-zero in 2002 to over 100,000 annually by 2014. These flights brought financial benefits to Afghanistan, with the government charging fees for each flight passing through its airspace. Despite the challenges the country faces, these fees could potentially contribute to its economic recovery.
Afghan authorities claim to have already earned over $8.4 million from overflight fees in recent months. However, international sanctions have led to complications regarding the collection of these fees, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) suspending its contract with Afghanistan to comply with sanctions on the Taliban. As a result, no payments have been made since September 2021.
The resumption of overflights in Afghanistan presents a complex set of challenges for airlines, governments, and the international community at large. While the potential benefits in terms of time and fuel savings are significant, they must be weighed against the risks associated with operating in an uncertain and potentially volatile environment. As discussions continue, finding a balance between convenience and safety will remain a priority for all stakeholders involved.
