Unexpected Iranian strikes in Balochistan have further complicated the already turbulent regional dynamics. Simultaneous strikes inside the territory of three neighboring states are obvious sign of boiling desperation in Tehran. Pakistan never expected such blatant violation of air space from a brotherly neighbor like Iran. Multi-dimensional damaging effects of surging terrorism on regional security are beyond any doubt.
Prolonged struggle of Pakistan against various brands of terrorist outfits is not a hidden piece of tricky security mosaic. Similarly, Iran is also suffering with recurring acts of terrorism committed by rebellion militants’ groups. More than a hundred Irani citizens lost their lives during anniversary gathering of Qasim Sulemani in Kerman city in first week of current month. Few weeks earlier in December, terrorists killed eleven Iranian security personnel during attack on police station in South-Eastern province of Sistan-o-Balochistan. These recent past gruesome terrorist attacks are enough to gauge the level of security threats emanating in bordering areas of Iran and Pakistan.
Rising tide of terrorism in Balochistan cannot be taken as a momentary development detached from regional security matrix. Security personnel, LEAs, foreign nationals, religious gatherings, defense installations and non-Baloch labors are being attacked with alarming frequency in Balochistan. Terrorist sanctuaries in Afghanistan and Iran are posing unprecedented security challenge to Pakistan particularly in Balochistan and KP provinces. Closer coordination between Pakistan and Iran in counter terrorism efforts should be a logical outcome of recurring terrorism. Unfortunately, sudden Iranian strike in Punjgur on alleged camp of a militant outfit has diverted the focus in Pakistan form terrorism to national sovereignty. Decision makers in Islamabad had no other option except targeting the hideouts of those militants who were involved in multiple terrorist attacks inside Pakistan. De-escalation is the only course which should be preferred without further delay. However, a dispassionate review of undesired tension is essential to explore a better way forward.
Iranian Strikes: Flaws, Possible Reasons & Consequences
One: Sudden strike inside Pakistan has badly damaged the bilateral ties and spirit of brotherhood with Iran. By-passing of multiple communication channels by Tehran on such a sensitive issue triggered shock and anger in Pakistan. Sense of betrayal was understandable as strikes took place few hours after the Irani FM had shared stage with Pakistan PM at Davos and a delegation led by Governor Sindh was on an official of Iran for bilateral trade coordination.
Two: Post strike response of Iran further spoiled the bilateral ties. Justification for indefensible borders violation was preferred over formal apology. Tehran was in no mood to give any importance to immediate downgrading of diplomatic ties by Islamabad.
Three: Iranian claim proved wrong as the strike could only kill two young girls instead of militants.
Four: Iran wrongly equated Pakistan with defenseless states like Syria and Iraq. This factor multiplied the provocative effects and triggered anti-Iran sentiments among masses probably for the first time in Pakistan.
Five: possible intelligence failure and apparent role of trigger-happy hawks in flawed decision-making process of such gravity merits deliberate introspection on part of Iran.
Six: This ill-conceived aggression from Tehran against a trusted neighbor has exposed many exploitable regional fault lines to hostile global powers.
Seven: After uncalled for aggression now the region is more polarized, distracted and vulnerable amid growing threats of terrorism.
Eight: Security threats for Pakistan have become more complicated with outbreak of unexpected hostilities on Iranian borders.
Nine: Focus of Muslim countries is diverted from Gaza atrocities to self-created crisis.
Ten: Iran pushed Pakistan in closed alley where retaliatory strikes were the only respectable option to even the violation of sovereignty.
Marg Bar Sarmchar: A Well Measured Response
One: Pakistan avoided knee-jerk retaliation and responded maturely by downgrading the diplomatic ties as an immediate step.
Two: Compelled by Iranian insistence on breach of sovereignty, Pakistan had to hit the wanted terrorists of BLA and BLF inside the Iran.
Three: Deliberate precision in execution of strikes to confirming avoid losses of Iranian civilians and military installations was openly acknowledged by Tehran while confirming the killing of foreigners on her soil.
Four: Indian support and jubilation immediately after the Iranian strike is a significant development in the peculiar context of her anti-Pakistan rhetoric revolving around surgical strikes and cross border terrorism allegations.
Five: Counter strike under unavoidable circumstances, refreshed Pakistan’s jaw breaking response to Indian misadventure in Balakot.
Six: Despite presence of BLA/ BLF affiliated terrorists in neighboring country, Pakistan bas always preferred diplomatic channels with Iran to convey the concerns.
Seven: Well measured response without collateral damage has reminded the strategic restrain of Pakistan displayed after mysterious firing of Brahmos missile by India.
Way Forward
One: Immediate resumption of bilateral normalcy between Iran and Pakistan should be pursued.
Two: Terrorism should be dealt as a common threat by both neighbors.
Three: Backers of the terrorist groups are the real trouble creators. Both, Iran and Pakistan, should allocate maximum efforts to trace out the actual patrons of terrorist groups.
Four: Iran should understand the impartial stance of Pakistan adopted in past once Tehran was deeply entangled with Iraq and Middle Eastern countries. Patience of a neighbor like Pakistan should not be tested beyond limits who had been walking on a tight rope for the sake of regional security.
Five: Formulation of robust joint counter terrorism mechanism between Iran and Pakistan must be pursued.
Six: Being strategic partner of China and major stake holders in BRI, both Pakistan and Iran should positively respond to the mediation offered by Beijing.
