Terrorism is back in Pakistan. Wars and conflicts still ravage many parts of the world. In other places, poverty and the vagaries of climate change have made life miserable for millions. Wars and conflicts are two important contributors to poverty and underdevelopment. After World War II, civil wars have become more common, but the trend of wars against terrorism has opened floodgates of conflicts that, since 2001, have diverged into multiple directions. Terrorism and wars are tools to induce fear and intimidation in people’s hearts.
History of war
When did human beings start getting involved in war is difficult to pinpoint. However, it would not be wrong to say that in every stage of sociopolitical evolution, from hunting and gathering to agriculture and animal husbandry and on to the commercial and industrial times, people have been indulged in war or “warre”, as Thomas Hobbes would call it emphatically. Historically wars have been waged to get access to and control the natural resources. Even the modern-day reasons for going to war hardly differ from the ancient ones. With a difference, that invasion today gets a legal veneer from multilateral organisations.
Whatever reason one may espouse for going to war, it shall always be counted as an unproductive and predatory expense. Terrorism has an equal proportion of devastating effects on the economy.
The political cost of terrorism
Pakistan’s political and economic troubles are as much linked to an economic atmosphere pregnant with uncertainties and shifting priorities as to the state’s inconsistent treatment of terrorism. One of the most significant reasons for terrorism is the poor socioeconomic conditions of some provinces, like Balochistan. Another reason is the state’s inability to develop an inclusive political environment for converging diverse political forces on a common platform or ideology. So far, our experiment with religion and the ideology of Pakistan has not proved successful enough to bind the country into a single thread of unity and faith. Perhaps, we need to look elsewhere, such as towards the model of equality and shared responsibility to build a nation.
The development cost of terrorism
On the one hand, terrorism has made Pakistan unattractive to foreign investors; on the other foreign sanctions have dwarfed Pakistan financially. A substantial part of Pakistan’s budget is spent on defence-related activities, and with the spectre of terrorism again raising its head, fewer funds would be available to spend on developmental projects. Fewer development projects mean more chances of Pakistan falling back on foreign debt. NO debt, especially the one secured by International Monetary Funds, is without strings. Though the idea behind applying stringent conditions is to foster a sense of financial prudence, their short-term effects result in a high cost of living for ordinary Pakistanis.
Terrorism and International Relations
When inflicted with terrorism or war-like situations, the country generates a negative perception in the international community. The result of the high-risk perception is reflected in reduced foreign investment, diminished tourism, skewed trade relations, high trade barriers, strained diplomatic relations, and limited opportunities for exchange educational programs and people-to-people interaction. Moreover, it also narrows the influence of a country on multilateral organisations and forums, which can dwindle collaboration on issues of global concern, such as climate change, human rights and international security,
The financial cost of terrorism
Pakistan has suffered an accumulative loss of $153 billion since the war on terrorism struck this nation in the wake of 9/11. Studies confirm that a 1% increase in terrorist incidents results in a 0.39% reduction in GDP growth. While the economic effect of terrorism is short-term on developed countries, developing or low-income countries have to grapple with the aftershocks for years to come.
Gaibulloev and Sandler studied 42 Asian countries to determine the effects of terrorism on their economy. They found that for each additional transnational terrorist incident per million inhabitants, the GDP per capita growth rate fell by 1.4%, and government spending as a percentage of GDP went up by 1.6%.
The indirect cost of terrorism
These are the direct costs of violence; however, there is also an indirect cost associated with terrorism resulting from the suffering of the victims and the loss of quality of life and business. Literature defines these costs as intangible or indirect costs of violence.
The indirect costs are often psychological and are challenging to measure, but their impact is often more significant than the monetary or tangible loss. Monetary loss can be replaced, but a loss of human life or mental peace due to consistent pain and physical injury remains a part of one’s life forever.
Conclusion
Pakistan is again in the throes of terrorism. There is only one way to come out of this never-ending cycle of terror-related incidents—to break it with socioeconomic development and divert a significant part of the budgetary allocation to education and health. Pakistan needs massive investment in human resource development—-unless we are geared towards this tangent, the prospect of getting out of this abyss will remain bleak.
