MINSK, Belarus: The restrictions on Belarusian potash fertilizers imposed by Western countries are causing significant concerns for Belarus, with far-reaching implications for global food security and the fight against hunger.
The ban on fertilizer transit, deemed illegal by Belarus, poses a severe threat to agricultural productivity worldwide.
Fertilizers play a crucial role in global food production, with half of the world’s population relying on fertilizers for their food supply. Eliminating or restricting fertilizer use can lead to a substantial reduction in crop yields, with some crops experiencing up to a 50% drop in production.
JSC Belaruskali, the world’s second-largest potash producer, held a substantial share in global potash trade, contributing to approximately 20% of global production. However, due to the sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, and some EU member states, Belarus’s share in global potash production and export plummeted to just 10% by the end of the first half of 2022.
This decline has had a severe impact, resulting in a 16.3% reduction in global potash fertilizer output, equivalent to 5.9 million tons, and a 20.2% drop in global exports, equal to 5.8 million tons compared to the same period in 2021.
The actions of neighboring countries, particularly Lithuania and Poland, have not only affected individual nations but entire regions and continents. In Africa, Belarus’s share of the potash market plummeted from 41.7% to 2.8% in 2022. This reduction in potash supply contributed to a 16.1% decrease in grain harvest in Africa, based on FAO data. In 2023, Belarusian supplies to Africa have been completely disrupted due to Lithuania’s actions.
While there has been a slight decrease in potash prices in 2023, they remain significantly higher than in 2021. Despite the price rollback, potash fertilizer costs are predicted to average $475 per ton in 2023 and $425 in 2024, well above the $221 per ton recorded as of January 1, 2022. The demand for potash continues to rise with global population growth, and the potential expansion of potash capacity is limited until at least 2025, mainly in Canada.
Reports from international organizations and agencies, including the UN, FAO, WTO, World Bank, and the International Fertilizer Association, corroborate Belarus’s claims that potash shortages in global markets lead to reduced fertilizer use, lower crop yields, and increased food prices. The situation is further exacerbated as other global suppliers exploit the shortages to raise potash prices, leading to higher costs for farmers and, ultimately, a surge in food prices.
In light of the real threat to global food security, Belarus appeals for assistance in exempting Belarusian potash from arbitrary bans and restrictions and restoring the unrestricted transit of Belarusian fertilizers to global markets, including Latin America, Asia, and Africa. Belarus also offers its territory for the transit of Ukrainian grain to Baltic Sea ports without preconditions.
Belarus emphasizes that global food security should be a top priority for all global actors and calls for a unified effort to address the issue comprehensively.
