Unresolved Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a point of worry for the NATO members predominantly EU countries and the US. Reincarnation of Russia as a formidable competing force in post-cold war scenario is an undesired strategic discomfort for US. Have US and its allies forgotten the reasons which compelled Russia for the annexation of Crimea? Episode is not too old to vanish from memories.
Approximately ten years back, renowned intellectual Noam Chomsky forewarned the US and its allies about the much predictable retaliatory response of Russia to any new misadventure in Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea. In his insightful article titled “Red Lines in Ukraine and Elsewhere”, Noam Chomsky compared the severity of the Ukrainian conflict revolving around the annexation of Crimea with the 1962 Cuban missile Crisis.
President Putin actually crossed the American red line by entering in Crimea. Kremlin’s stance at that time was clear that it was actually US which provided justification for annexation of Crimea by keeping the red lines in Russian backyard. Any ways the price of American provocation was paid by the Crimea. Another unique dimension of that episode was very accurately summed up by the author Thannasis Cambanis in Boston Globe “Putin’s annexation of the Crimea is a break in the order that America and its allies have come to rely on since the end of cold war –namely, one in which major powers only intervene militarily when they have an international consensus on their side, or failing that, when they are not crossing a rival power’s red lines”. In a way it was an extraordinary invasion in which Putin crossed the red lines without having international consensus on his side and later on sustained the act of annexation.
War has entered in third year with no apparent signs of end in sight any soon. Though, precise prediction about the emerging dominant player in this war may not be possible at this stage, however, a fluctuating status quo is being interpreted by both rivals in their favor. Ukraine is nervously proud about its survival and successful resistance against comparatively much greater Russian military power. Global players including US, UK and EU are pouring the moral and material support on Ukraine unhesitatingly.
International forums, human rights watchdogs and most of the world media continue to endorse the Ukrainian stance. Most obviously, Kiev is surviving the Russian military actions due to constant enabling support from world giants but everything is not fine for Ukraine. Against all the wishes of Ukrainians, NATO has not yet granted membership to Kiev in these testing times. This point alone is enough to keep the Ukraine nervous.
Interestingly, Russia is also using this aspect optimally to portray its upper hand in quite a tricky and unpredictable situation. Undoubtedly, Ukraine is still surviving the offensive but its considerable territories have gone under the control of Russia. Much talked about international aid and every sort of moral support cannot be considered as a suitable compensation for the loss of strategically important areas like Donetsk, Luhansk, Mariupol and Kherson. In simple words much talked about piles of military aid, financial injections and operational intelligence rendered by the backers have fallen short to take Ukraine out of the conflict unharmed.
This forceful prevalence of Moscow’s military might in fact is a loud message to all the competitors unified in support of Ukraine. Already dented world order was broken again in Ukraine two years back. US and its NATO allies have been continuously demonizing the Russia for invading the Ukraine citing moral and human rights codes. Sanctions imposed on Russia at various occasions proved ineffective to an extent that recently EU had to announce the 13th package of enhanced restrictions. Fate of this economic instrument will be no different from the previous ones. Hesitant and ambiguous EU is supporting the Ukraine from a carefully marked safe distance.
What unfolds in the longer run on the global chessboard is hard to predict but destruction of Ukraine in cutthroat global contest is beyond any doubt. Ritual of morality-based humanitarian hue and cry of Western quarters about Ukraine seems hollower after exposure of global double standards amid massacre of Gazans in the hands of Israeli genocidal regime. As per western scales, If Ukraine has a legitimate right to resist against invading force then why similar right is denied to the occupied Palestine against the occupational Israel? Global powers never follow a uniform code while dealing with the crises of identical nature occurring in two different regions. Delay rather hesitation in granting NATO membership to Ukraine can be easily decoded.
US and NATO allies are actually not worried about the Ukraine’s territorial integrity and the rights of its people. They are primarily focused on cordoning and coercing the rival powers like Russia and China. In this quest, enhanced sanctions can fetch intended outcomes and physical support is out of question due to obvious consequences. Leadership of war ridden Ukraine and its people should weigh out the pros and cons of aligning with the rivals of a powerful neighbor like Russia who retaliated to its rivals by annexing the Crimea for intended violation of its red lines.
