Pakistan’s Growth Story in Tables

All eyes on the elections in Pakistan as economy and political stability are directly related to reach other.  How it is an opportunity to discuss the economy of the county with the help of table. Why reforms are required and which Global factors can affect Pakistan’s economy.

Table 1: GDP Growth Rate (World Bank)

• Fiscal Year GDP Growth (%)
• FY23 (Estimated)              -0.6
• FY24 (Projected)               1.7
• FY25 (Projected)               2.3

Table 2: Economic Outlook and Challenges

• Outlook and Risks                                          Sectoral Recovery Expectations
• Sluggish economic growth expected           Expected recovery in agriculture sector
• High downside risks                                        Marginal ease in import restrictions
• IMF Stand-By Arrangement approval       Some recovery in the industrial sector
• Reserves expected to remain low                  Strengthening agriculture and industry supports services

Table 3: Export Projections–IMF

Fiscal Year Export Proceeds (in billion USD)

• FY24      $30.84
• FY25      $32.35
• FY26      $34.68
• FY27      $37.25
• FY28      $39.46

Table 4: Remittances, World Bank Forecast for Year 2024

• Year        Forecasted Growth (%)  Estimated Remittance Amount (in billion USD)
• 2024     -10         Below $22 billion

Table 5: Global Factors Affecting Remittances in 2023

• Factor    Impact on Growth
• Shift in trend: Families moving out of PK Decline
• Weak growth in other GCC & EU countries                 Decline
• Oil prices and production drop                                     Decline

Summary Table: Risks Without Reforms

• Risks Without Reforms
•  Exceptionally high risks
• -Economic activity constrained.
• Anemic GDP Growth
• -Low investment & weak exports undermine growth potential
• Over 10 million people at risk of falling into poverty without reforms

Global Factors Table:

• Factor/Event      Impact/Concern
• Federal Reserve Action Fed crushes March rate-cut hopes.
• Will freeze liquidity.
• Stock markets remain south bound

China’s Property Meltdown

• Reinforces belief in global deflation shockwave steming from China property market meltdown
• Brent Forecast   Forecast range: $70 to $80; Breach above may not be good for the global economy
• Geopolitical Uncertainty
• More aggressive posture by warring countries may escalate uncertainty and commodity prices