In an unprecedented move, Pakistan launched a series of cross-border airstrikes in Afghanistan, targeting hideouts of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on 18 March 2024. This escalation follows a disturbing rise in terrorist violence across Pakistan. The airstrikes mark a significant shift in Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy, previously reliant on diplomacy with the Taliban government established in August 2021.
The TTP has plagued Pakistan for over two decades. Formed in 2007, the group aims to overthrow the Pakistani government and establish a strict interpretation of Islamic law. The TTP has carried out numerous bombings, suicide attacks, and assassinations, targeting civilians, security forces, and government officials.
The group’s resurgence in recent years has been a major concern for Pakistan, contributing significantly to the rise in violence. In 2023, Pakistan suffered over 1,500 fatalities – the highest in six years. The TTP’s safe havens in Afghanistan under the Taliban regime are a major source of instability in Pakistan.
Pakistan blames the Taliban for failing to uphold its commitments under the Doha Agreement, signed in February 2020. This agreement stipulated that Afghan soil would not be used for attacks against other countries. Despite several rounds of negotiations, frustration mounted in Pakistan as the Taliban appeared unable or unwilling to rein in the TTP leading Pakistan to take a more forceful approach
Cross Border Threat Disruption
This is not the first time Pakistan has acted against perceived threats across its borders. In April 2022, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Iran after Iranian incursions violated Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty in Balochistan province. Pakistan’s airstrikes targeted suspected BLA hideouts within Iran, highlighting the volatile nature of the border region.
Previously, in the aftermath of the Balakot airstrikes by India in February 2019, Pakistan claimed to have carried out counter-operations within Indian territory by carrying dead drops near strategic targets. Notably, Pakistan also shot down an Indian jet fighter during this tense period, capturing its pilot, Abhinandan. These incidents demonstrate Pakistan’s willingness to defend its borders and respond forcefully to perceived threats, even risking escalation with regional powers.
With the strikes in Afghanistan, it has become the third neighbor to face Pakistan’s new tactic of Cross Border Threat Disruption. The series of air raids and strikes in these three countries now clearly indicate the adoption of this new concept in Pakistan’s strategic calculus.
The response of Pakistan is based on the right of self-defense ensured by article 51 of the UN charter. The right to self-defense also incorporates pre-emptive strikes as practiced by other nations specifically the US. Although, Pakistan was always entitled to this right, it never applied it. The reasons could have been the geopolitical compulsions, capability issues and political will.
The purpose of this new tactic is twofold: it aims to deter both state and non-state actors from violating Pakistan’s sovereignty and also dismantles terrorist infrastructure in neighboring countries. The tactic marks a significant shift in Pakistan’s counterterrorism approach, moving from a primarily defensive posture to one that allows for pre-emptive strikes against perceived threats.
Uncertain Future for Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations
Beyond the immediate tit-for-tat attacks, the long-term consequences of Pakistan’s airstrikes remain uncertain. The escalation has undoubtedly damaged the already fragile trust between the two neighbors. Years of political instability, coupled with the ongoing presence of the TTP within Afghanistan, have created a volatile situation. Both countries are now faced with the possibility of a wider conflict, one that could further destabilize the region and derail any hope of lasting peace.
However, amidst the tension, there is also a glimmer of opportunity. The airstrikes, have served as a wake-up call for both Pakistan and Afghanistan. The message is clear: the threat of terrorism requires a more proactive and collaborative approach. Ignoring the issue or resorting solely to military means will not be enough. Lasting peace can only be achieved by addressing the root causes of terrorism that plague both nations. This means tackling issues like poverty, social marginalization, and the proliferation of extremist ideologies.
Way Forward
Afghanistan, still reeling from decades of war, needs Pakistan’s support for reconstruction and international recognition. Conversely, Pakistan requires a demonstrably stable Afghanistan free from terrorist threats emanating from its territory. In order to resolve these issues, a renewed commitment to diplomacy and dialogue is essential. Pakistan and Afghanistan need to move beyond finger-pointing and engage in constructive discussions aimed at dismantling the TTP.
This could involve establishing a joint counterterrorism action for intelligence sharing and coordinated operations. Additionally, addressing underlying grievances in marginalized regions, promoting economic development, and upholding human rights are crucial steps in weakening the appeal of extremist groups. Only by working together and addressing the root causes of terrorism can Pakistan and Afghanistan build a more secure future for their citizens and the region as a whole.
